🔗 Share this article

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.